We’ve just updated the Election 2011: Poll HQ page with the 3 News-Reid Research Poll and ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll. Here are the highlights:
- Both polls suggest that National could still govern alone but only just. They gained about 50% of the vote in both polls.
- Labour is muddling around 26-28% in the polls. and will be unable to govern on those results, even with the Greens help.
- The Greens are listed as gaining 10% on the Colmar Brunton Poll and 13.4&% on the Reid Research Poll. Their shift to the more moderate middle-ground appears to have paid off for them and they may find themselves in government after Russell Norman didn’t rule out working with National.
- NZ First has continued to climb, reaching 3.1% in the Reid Research Poll and 4.2% in the Colmar Brunton Poll. Both polls indicate that Winston Peters is agonisingly close to finding his way back into parliament.
- The Conservative Party has been the star of the minor parties, surpassing their right wing competition Act. The Reid Poll has them at 1.8% and the Colmar Brunton Poll has them at an impressive (for a first time party) 2. 4%. Colin Craig is polling well in Rodney and may find himself supporting National in Government
- The Maori Party (between 1.5% – 2%), Act (1% – 1.7%), Mana (1% – 1.1%) and United Future (0% – 0.1%) round up the remaining votes.
These results indicate that a National victory is still likely, and also suggest that National could still govern alone if they so wished. However, the gap between National and Labour has closed but not enough to cause National any serious concern. One must remember that while voting in a poll is one thing, the only vote that counts is the one that you cast on election day.